Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Setting the Tone - An Observational Experiment

A hunch I've had about Alex Rios, especially watching him for this season and last season, has been that he has a tendency to let his first at-bat really dictate how he hits for the rest of his game. If he has a good result early, he hits well; if not, he has a bad game at the plate. So what I've decided to do is to actually chart this and do a little statistical analysis on the findings.

So here's the rough explanation:
Duration: April 21st to June 7th, 45 games
First AB will be labeled either 'good', 'neutral', or 'bad'
Batting average will be tracked in those three categories
Good ABs: Hits, Sac Fly
Neutral ABs: Walks, HBP, ROE, Sac bunt
Bad ABs: Any outs other than sacrifices
Stats tracked: Hits, AB, batting average, HR, RBI, K, RISP

Over the course of those games, results get tabulated, and at the end of the experiment, we'll determine the batting average over those three categories, and see how they bear out. Might extend the experiment further, as well, to 60 games or so. Seeing how this affects how Rios at the plate should be an interesting exercise, and my hypothesis is that the numbers are going to bear out the qualitative observations over the last year. Also, I could use a project like this to fill my time.

No comments:

Post a Comment